Against the Odds: Improving Euro Area Commercial Lending Indicators

Against the Odds: Improving Euro Area Commercial Lending Indicators

Over the past several months the European Union has weathered a number of challenges – Brexit, political turmoil, the migrant crisis, and sluggish GDP growth among them. But surprisingly, the latest European Central Bank (ECB) data doesn’t reflect any negative shocks on credit supply and demand.

The latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey found that competitive pressures are the main factor behind the easing of credit standards on loans to enterprises, including a narrowing of interest rate margins. At the same time, demand for loans by enterprises is increasing, driven by merger and acquisition activities, inventories and working capital, and continued low interest rates. Although demand is strengthening, alternative financing sources dampened demand for bank financing slightly.

Euro Area Bank Lending Survey

Looking at the top half of this chart, there is no question that banks ratcheted up credit standards like pricing, covenants, cash flow, and capital during Europe’s two recessionary periods. At the same time, businesses of all sizes stopped seeking credit. There is just no appetite for companies to take on additional liabilities during a period when consumers aren’t spending and the economy is shrinking.

More recently, in early 2014 both sides of the credit standards and demand equation crossed the middle point. Since then, credit standards have leveled off while credit demand from enterprises has risen slightly, especially for small-to-medium enterprises (SME).

Despite the ups and downs in credit demand and standards, loan outstandings to non-financial corporations has been surprisingly resilient, even during euro area recessionary periods.

ECB Loans to Non-Financial Corporations

The June ECB reflected slight growth over the past quarter, at the end of which the UK voted to leave the European Union. Time will tell whether Brexit and the expected negative impact to eurozone growth will dampen demand and subsequent loan growth for euro area commercial lending.

The new 4 C’s of commercial lending

The new 4 C’s of commercial lending
Last week, I participated in a Finextra webinar on the topic of “Connected Credit and Compliance for Lending Growth” with panelists from ING, Vertus Partners, Misys and Credits Vision.  As I prepared for the webinar, I thought back to my first exposure to commercial lending when I worked for a large regional bank and I recalled the 4C’s of commercial lending from credit training:  character, capacity, capital and collateral.  All of those original 4C’s are still relevant in today’s environment when evaluating borrowers, but when considering the state of the commercial lending business in 2016, we need to think about an entirely new set of 4C’s:
  • Constraints on capital and liquidity
  • Cost of compliance
  • Changing client expectations
  • Competition from new entrants
On a global basis, banks are being forced to restructure their business models, technology platforms, and organizational processes in order to grow their portfolios, remain profitable, and stay in the good graces of their regulators.  All the while, meeting the evolving demands of clients who can view and manage their personal finances on demand, at their convenience, using the device of their choice. Despite these challenges, the panel remains optimistic that banks can and will evolve to grow this critical line of business. finance590x290_0 Where does this optimism comes from? Alternative lenders provide both a threat and an opportunity for banks as they make the difficult decisions on whether and how to serve a particular segment of the commercial lending market. Fintech partners offer more modern solutions than the decades-old clunkers that many banks still use; providing for more efficient and accurate decisioning, enhanced visibility and processing within the bank, and where appropriate, self-service capabilities.  Connectivity with clients and partners will increasingly be the hallmark of a successful commercial lender. For more insights from the panel, please register for the on-demand version of the webinar here: Finextra: Connected Credit and Compliance for Lending Growth.  

Corporate banking: serving the needs of business clients

Corporate banking: serving the needs of business clients
Last week I joined Celent’s banking practice as a Senior Analyst covering Corporate Banking. I join fellow corporate banking analysts, Gareth Lodge and Jim O’Neill. Gareth covers payments back office, payments infrastructures, and payments connectivity. Jim covers core systems modernization, the impact of cloud computing, and treasury management technology. My coverage will be focused on the technology impacts of meeting the financial management needs of business customers, ranging from global multinational corporates to small businesses. This includes global transaction services, small business services, commercial and small business lending, and the changing role of corporate treasury and its impact on meeting the needs of corporate banking clients. It’s an exciting time to return to the Corporate Banking analyst ranks. In the face of an uneven global economic recovery, evolving regulatory imperatives, and unpredictable supply chain disruptions, corporate treasury and finance teams have expanded roles and responsibilities. These developments are putting increased pressure on financial services providers in the areas of working capital management, liquidity management, external financing, payables and receivables, international trade, supply chain finance, merchant services and delivery channels. For the large global banks serving corporate and institutional clients, transaction banking revenues and deposits are holding up due to strong transaction volumes, despite a low interest rate environment. Looking across the largest global banks, transaction banking’s share of total bank revenue averages 13%, with its share of deposits averaging 36%.
Transaction Banking Revenue and Deposits

Transaction Banking Revenue and Deposits

On the lending side, US commercial loan outstandings have more than fully recovered from the 2008-2009 financial crisis. US commercial and industrial loans, particularly hit hard during the crisis, have rebounded almost 45% since their lowest point in 2010. Commercial lending in the euro area is another story. Since their peak in 2008, loans to corporations have declined 9%. As discussed in this year’s Top Trends in Corporate Banking 2015 report, banks are facing a complex new reality with disruptive technology, the changing role of corporate treasury and regulatory imperatives shaping corporate banking strategies in new and unprecedented ways. In order to maintain (and hopefully grow) corporate banking revenue and market share, banks need to address the top trends outlined in the report in the context of Celent’s three overall financial services technology themes:

• Digital and Omnichannel • Innovation and Emerging Technologies • Legacy and Ecosystem Transformation

If you have feedback on additional top corporate banking trends we should be covering, I would love to hear your ideas.