1. Failure to appreciate diversity of needs or preferences
2. Failure to appreciate the shrinking half-life of facts
3. Failure to skate to where the puck is goingLet’s look at each one briefly…
Failure to appreciate diversity of needs or preferences This is utterly common. You see it in headlines all the time. “Millennials this…”, “Small businesses that…”, Community banks are…”. The trap involves extrapolating limited data to an entire population. Two current examples illustrate: The Use of AI in Banking is About to Explode. Apart from confusing AI with predictive analytics (which is more broadly used), the article asserts “explosive” future adoption of AI right around the corner. I’ll just say that this assertion vastly overstates planned adoption of AI among North American banks based on recent Celent research. Bank on Changes. Among other things, this pleasant article states “Smaller community banks like Edison, which emphasize personal service, said they have no plans to scale back drive-through or other services at brick-and-mortar locations.” While referring to a small number of community banks interviewed for the article, it projects those results on the entire community bank population.
So, are community banks planning on maintaining their current brick-and-mortar services in their entirety – despite the growth in mobile banking utilization? Some are and some aren’t. the figure below displays results a very question posed in a December 2016 Celent survey of North American financial institutions. “Compared to your current branch count, how many branches do you expect your institution will operate five years from now?” The report is not yet published. The idea is simple: banks serve diverse markets and make a diversity of decisions as well. The diversity of expected response is glaring in this data! So as not to give away too much of the report’s contents, I refrain from graphing the results of that question by asset tier. Failure to Appreciate the Shrinking Half-Life of Facts Assertions abound about customers, what they do, want and value. Some data points supporting these assertions are dated. This is increasingly dangerous. Samuel Arbesman argues for a shrinking half-life of facts in his book, The Half-Life of Facts. Most substantive change takes a while to accomplish – particularly among large organizations. I think many banks are at risk by assuming the facts as they knew them at the beginning of a protracted initiative will remain after the initiative is finished. When it comes to mobile, for example, six months is a long time and a year is eternity.
Failure to Skate to Where the Puck is Going Even those of us who aren’t hockey fans are familiar with the famed Wayne Gretzky quote about skating to where the puck is going instead of where it has been. I saw this up close and personal as part of a research effort exploring the current and likely evolution of retail delivery channel technology. Omnichannel delivery clearly remains aspirational at most institutions (I’ll defend that assertion thoroughly in the upcoming report). Yet, even as most surveyed institutions concede the importance of omnichannel delivery, the significant majority are not yet meaningfully engaged in bringing it about. How could that be? Many banks – particularly those with below industry average mobile banking customer utilization – aren’t feeling the pain yet. They are skating to where the puck has been. When they do feel the pain, it will likely be the result of much damage already inflicted.
This is a copy from my guest post for Finnovista that I wanted to share with you here as well.
A few years ago when we started collaborating in creating the Latin American Fintech community there were no Fintech associations, no Fintech conferences and for sure there was no mapping of Fintech start-ups at all. It has been quite a journey for all of us involved. Kuddos to the Finnovista team for being a key element and catalyser for these achievements!
What exciting moment to be in financial services! Many things going on. Banks are being unbundled; and its happening everywhere. Want to take a look? Check what’s going on in the US, Europe and in more near places across Latin America like Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Chile.
It’s making no distinctions, affecting personal and business banking equally. Consequently, the nature of competition is changing; and pressure is not expected to come from other financial institutions. In a recent Celent survey, to SME banking representatives from Latin American banks, most believe that fundamental changes that are expected to occur in the banking industry won’t come from other financial institutions; instead they are looking mainly to new entrants and adjacent industries.
In last year’s survey to retail banks in Latin America, Stanford University found that 47% of the banks see Fintechs as a threat. The same survey indicates that only 28% of the banks meet the needs of their digital customers. Not a position where you want to be.
Customer expectations, pressure on revenue and cost, and increased regulation don’t make the life easier for banks either. Fintech start-ups may advantage banks on responding to customer expectations and being leaner has Fintechs better positioned to pressure on costs; but they have to play under the same regulation and at some point earn revenues in excess of cost (a.k.a. be profitable).
FCA, the U.K. financial regulator, has opened its sandbox for applications from financial firms and tech companies that support financial services. Successful applicants can test new ideas for three to six months with real consumers under loosened regulations. This is something we haven’t see yet in Latin America, though regulators are increasingly open to the benefits of Fintech and innovation, particularly if it is related to financial inclusion: we have seen the support of regulators to mobile wallets across the region in the last couple of years. Mexico appointed this year an officer for Fintech development in what I see as the leading case in the region to facilitate the adoption of services provided by Fintechs under the umbrella – and supervision – of the regulator. Most lately, the Argentinean regulator has introduced changes enabling digital onboarding, and in payments facilitating competition and adoption; though no sandbox yet, but maybe a digital/branchless bank in the way? Will it be a disrupting incumbent or a new player? By themselves or in cooperation with Fintechs?
Indeed, there has been a lot of debate regarding the nature of the (best) relationship between banks and Fintechs; be it competition, cooperation or coopetition, banks need to play a different game. The ecosystem has changed incorporating a myriad of players and increased complexity. Banks must reconstruct their business models around three areas, recognizing that they are part of a broader and new financial ecosystem:
- Channels: How the bank serves customers
- Architecture: How the bank organizes to deliver value
- Innovation: How the bank delivers new ideas, products and services around both channels and architecture
Banks can innovate on their own, or partner with Fintechs or other 3rd parties; at the end of the day banks need to select and execute on the best innovation models. There is no single answer that fits all; each institution will have to discover the best combination of innovation models aligned with risk appetite, organizational culture and the target customers you want to reach.
A couple weeks ago I attended the Mobile Banking and Payments Summit in NYC for the first time. There was an impressive list of experts from institutions such as JPMC, Barclays, Citibank, BNP Paribas, the Federal Reserve, USAA, Capital One, BBVA, and Moven, among others. I was only able to attend the final day, but it didn’t disappoint. The day focused mostly on mobile wallets, with a few main points shared below:
Mobile wallets have been challenged by industry barriers: The old rule of thumb with a payments scheme is that it needs to please three parties: the merchant, the bank, and the consumer. These products and solutions have traditionally fallen short of one or more of these objectives, essentially stalling a lot of the progress.
- There’s still plenty of fragmentation in the market: Android is an open system utilizing Host Card Emulation (HCE), while Apple is a closed system using a secure element. There are others beyond that, but it’s largely contributed to a lack of standardization and unimpressive overall adoption. We know this is largely understood by banks and merchants, and many are willing to play along for the time being.
- Consumers can misunderstand mobile wallets: Many users of Apple Pay, for example, have a poor understanding of how the system actually works, with many assuming Apple is in control of their card details. While the system is safer than traditional cards, the perception that it’s less safe is keeping many users from adopting it.
- Getting the marketing right is tough: Often, the mobile wallet really isn’t about the payment so much as the experience around the payment. It might be easier or there might be a whole host of incentives like rewards wrapped around it. The potential is there, but until recently the market hasn’t been.
- But many barriers are beginning to fall away, and there’s hope for adoption: For years, the industry has been declaring that FINALLY this year will be the year mobile wallets take off. The industry has been crying wolf for a long time, but there are some promising developments that hope to make mobile wallets a larger share of the payments universe. Currently in the US, 55% of merchants have updated their payment terminals, and 70% of consumers have chip cards. The chip card does a lot for security, but the argument is that it adds friction to the checkout experience. With the card dip taking away from the user experience, the expectation is that mobile wallets will finally offer enough UX improvement over traditional cards that consumers might opt for them during payment. It’s also reported that more than 50% of millennials have already used a mobile wallet at least once. This includes Apple Pay, Android Pay, or Samsung Pay. The growth in adoption with younger consumers is a good sign that broader adoption might not be too far behind.
My colleague Zil Bareisis has written about this quite a bit, and agrees that adoption could be driven by the emergence of EMV as well as an increase in handsets that support wallet payments.Wallets are also striking partnerships to add value, including introducing merchant loyalty, coupons, etc.The launch of Walmart Pay is a great example of a retailer applying these concepts internally, facilitating even greater adoption. For more information see any of the number of reports Zil has written on the topic.
Midsize institutions have a few paths to follow implementing a mobile wallet: Banks want to be a part of the adoption, but have so far taken a wait and see approach, unsure about the potential of existing wallets, and still trying to figure out what it means for them as the issuing bank. There are three primary ways a midsize or smaller bank can try to launch a wallet:
- Building an internal wallet: This provides the most control, customization, flexibility of functionality, and control over the release schedule. The drawbacks are that it can be a complicated task, a large investment is required, the institution needs sufficient subject matter expertise in-house, and there would be no Apple NFC support.
- Buying a turnkey white label wallet: A turnkey solution would have the benefit of being plug-and-play, there would be some customization options, functionality would be built in, fewer resources would be involved, and the vendor would provide some subject matter expertise. There would, however, be less control over the product, the wallet could be processor dependant, and the roadmap wouldn’t be controlled by the institution.
- Participating in an existing wallet: For many this is the road that will result in the largest adoption. The options are fairly universal, with Samsung, Apple, and Android offering networks here. Its plug and play, easy to get traction, includes a lot of choice, and frictionless. The drawbacks are mainly the lack of customization options or control over the direction of the wallet.
We often say that we go to these conferences so that our subscribers don’t have to. This is just a short summary of the day, and obviously there was much more detail shared. We encourage all of our readers to attend these events, but will be there in case they can’t make it.
It is my pleasure to announce that we are now accepting nominations for Model Bank 2017. The nominations window will be open until November 30.
Our regular readers should be familiar with Model Bank. We began the program in 2007 and are celebrating its 10th anniversary this year. Celent Model Bank is awarded for best practices of technology usage in different areas critical to success in banking, and is the main award that a financial institution (FI) can win from Celent. The award is only available to the FIs, although we are aware of and appreciate the critical role the technology vendors play in the success of those initiatives, as well as our program.
The essence of Model Bank program hasn't changed throughout the years – FIs themselves select and submit their various technology initiatives to us. We judge those initiatives on three core criteria – business benefits, degree of innovation, and technology or implementation excellence. The winners receive their awards during Innovation and Insight Day, Celent's flagship event, and the case studies of winning initiatives are featured in Celent reports.
Yet, every year we continue to make subtle changes, as we seek to improve the Model Bank program and ensure it stays relevant in the fast-changing world of banking. This year, we revised the categories in which we will be judging and awarding the initiatives.
For 2017, we are accepting nominations in five categories:
- Customer Experience
- Operations and Risk
- Legacy Transformation
- Emerging Innovation
This year, we also created a page on our website dedicated to Model Bank. On that page, you will find more detailed descriptions of this year's award categories, and links to the nomination form as well as various PDF documents, containing the list of previous Model Bank winners, an example case study, and the PR guidelines for winners. You will also find answers to an extensive list of Frequently Asked Questions about the program, how to apply, how we judge the initiatives, what happens if you win, etc. We strongly encourage you to spend some time going through various FAQ pages. Of course, if you still have any questions that are unanswered, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Last year we received well over a hundred nominations and awarded 19 initiatives. Yet, we know that the pace of innovation and change in the industry hasn't slowed down, so we hope and expect to see lots of exciting initiatives this year again. We look forward to hearing from you. Just don't forget, the deadline is November 30, 2016.
Hosted by the European Banking Association and Finextra, EBAday attracts payments professionals from leading financial institutions and technology providers. This year’s event was held in Milan Italy with the theme, “A Brave New World for Payments.” Sessions focused on the dilemma facing the payments industry – enhancing existing payment models while preparing for alternative payments and technology.
I had the honor of moderating day two’s strategic roundtable discussing future challenges and opportunities for banks. The panelists were Paolo Cederle, CEO, UniCredit business integrated solutions; Christophe Chazot, group head of innovation, HSBC; and Damian Pettit, RBS head of payment operations.
The panelists felt that there is a disconnect between the limitations of legacy bank infrastructure and the promise of new technologies. With the majority of bank IT budgets spent on maintenance, the challenge is for banks to keep existing systems running while investing in the future. For customers, there is too much complexity, especially in cross-border payments, and customers want an easy experience at minimal cost.
Discussing Faster Payments in the UK, the panelists said the introduction eight years ago has revolutionized payments, completely changing customer behavior and paving the way for new mobile-based services such as Paym, the UK’s mobile payments service offered by seventeen banks and building societies. For countries having implemented immediate payments, real-time is the new norm and with that comes expectation and demand from customers.
With the EU PSD2 payment services provisions looming on the horizon, the discussion turned to the prospect of disintermediation of banks by third-party providers. The panelists were optimistic about the future, and feel that the regulation is helping to steer the banks toward new initiatives and innovation in services, and is a great opportunity to better service customers and push banks up the value chain.
Regarding the question of whether emerging payment models and technology represent an escalating threat, the response was that instant payments brings security challenges. But the panelists overwhelmingly agreed that convenience and speed cannot come at the cost of security–safety and security is absolutely paramount.
The discussion then moved onto the theme of disruption — are payments in a revolutionary or evolutionary phase? The panelists felt it was a bit of both. Revolutionary technologies such mobile and artificial intelligence are pushing payments along an evolutionary path. And banks have an advantage. The Fintech startups entering the market don't have the direct customer interaction and track record that banks have in safety and security. The banks are running hackathons and open to working with startups while improving legacy systems and simplifying the customer proposition.
All of the panelists’ banks are members of the R3 blockchain consortium. Blockchain is bringing a new way of working together for banks and technology providers. Each of the panelists is watching the technology closely and one area of opportunity cited was the last mile of the payments chain and in the trade finance arena.
My take-away from the roundtable was that the global payments industry is transforming. The “brave new world” is one with an imperative to be nimble, keeping your eye on all of the opportunities both for existing payment models as well as alternative technologies. Collaboration is key whether through acquisitions, consortiums, partnerships or open source projects.
American Banker just ran an interesting article about Citi’s foray into the use of geolocation (beacons) as it pilots several use cases in its “smart branches.” Several thoughts immediately came to mind as I read Tanaya Macheel’s well-written article:
- The use of beacons for cardless access to branch ATMs after business hours was the lead use case cited in the article. But, that’s just one of a growing number of potentially very useful applications for beacons in retail financial services.
- Banks have barely scratched the surface in more usefully integrating digital and physical channels as they seek to maximize customer engagement.
- Geolocation, in particular, is under-utilized by retailers (especially banks) and remains largely experimental.
My hat is off to Citi for its purposeful investment in developing expertise in this area and to American Banker for writing about Citi’s work. In my view, the most impressive aspect of this initiative isn’t so much Citi’s pushing the technology envelope; it’s the organizational effort that was likely required. Getting its branch operations, mobile product management, IT and LOB leadership aligned represents real commitment to innovation.
How far ahead of the industry is Citi?
Here’s one data point. In Celent’s inaugural Branch Transformation Research Panel survey in (June 2015), we sought to establish a benchmark on just how far and how fast NA institutions were pursuing branch channel transformation. Of course, several questions addressed planned technology usage. Out of a dozen examples of technology usage, geo-location ranked dead last in terms of the liklihood of usage in future branch designs – just 27% of surveyed institutions thought the use of beacons would be "somewhat likely" or "very likely".
Pretty far I'd say!
Please join me on Thursday, April 21st at noon EST for an overview of the 2016 edition of our Top Trends in Corporate Banking report, which was published in March.
Corporate banks continue to place an enormous focus on investing in digital channels to meet the ever-increasing demands of clients for enhanced tools while boosting security and fraud prevention. Despite this investment, corporate banking has lagged in terms of adoption of innovative technologies. To improve that performance, corporate banking lines of business are undertaking a broad set of initiatives to overcome the inertia that has left clients behind in terms of innovation. Among the top trends, we will examine the opportunities in trade finance and customer onboarding for improving efficiency and enhancing client satisfaction. Other top trends include fintech partnerships, distributed ledger technology and open APIs and adapting liquidity management strategies. I look forward to having you join us on Thursday!
Last week many of us at Celent were in New York attending our Innovation and Insight Day on April 13th. It is Celent's flagship event during which we announce Model Bank and Model Insurer winners and celebrate their achievements. In addition, the program includes keynote speeches from industry leaders and Celent analysts, plenty of opportunities to network with peers, and even to experience some of the latest technologies first hand, courtesy of our sponsors.
The theme of this year's event was "Financial Services Reborn", and the Museum of American Finance on Wall Street provided an inspiring setting to celebrate innovation in financial services. Craig Weber, Celent CEO, kicked off the proceedings drawing insightful parallels between the battle of Alamo and the future of financial services. It must have been the first time in Craig's career that he had to come up on stage to the soundtrack of hip hop music, an extract from the Broadway musical "Hamilton", but it set the tone for the rest of the day – to expect the unexpected and to be open to new ideas.
Both of our guest speakers – Nadeem Shaikh, Co-Founder and CEO of Anthemis Group, and Leanne Kemp, Founder and CEO of Everledger – thrilled the audience and opened everyone's eyes to the opportunities presented by Fintech and Blockchain respectively, while our colleague Will Trout spoke eloquently about consumer-led convergence. A big 'thank you' to all the speakers, as well as the sponsors supporting the event!
The rest of the day was all about celebrating the achievements of Model Bank and Model Insurance award winners. As many of this blog's readers know, the vision for Celent’s Model Bank research, now in its ninth year, is to spotlight effective uses of technology in banking. This year we received a record number of submissions – well over 100 – that came from all over the world; the nominations were spread equally between North America, EMEA and APAC. The award winners come from four continents and nine countries and range from credit unions and microfinance institutions to the world's largest banks.
Celent Model Bank 2016 winners are:
Model Bank 2016 Categories
1. Digital Banking Transformation
Citizens Bank, US
Garanti Bank, Turkey
2. Omnichannel Banking
Beyond Bank, Australia
Standard Chartered Bank, Korea
3. Digital Payments and Cards
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, US
4. Corporate Payments and Infrastructure Modernization
Bank of China, China
CBW Bank, US
5. Cash Management and Trade Finance
HBL (Habib Bank), Pakistan
6. Security, Fraud, and Risk Management
7. Legacy Transformation
Umpqua Bank, US
Vietnam Bank For Social Policies, Vietnam
Model Bank of the Year
Eastern Bank, US
As always, we published a series of reports with detailed case studies of all winning initiatives. Celent research subscription clients can access the Model Bank of the Year and individual category reports via our website.
This year we also introduced a new award, Model Bank Vendor. We wanted to acknowledge the vendor role in helping multiple clients achieve technology or implementation excellence, one of our judging criteria, and to extend our appreciation to the entire vendor community, which is instrumental in the ongoing success of the Model Bank program. Celent recognized two companies as Model Bank Vendors for 2016:
- EdgeVerve Systems
- Nucleus Software
Congratulations to all our award winners! We are grateful to have been exposed to so many extraordinary initiatives and the talented individuals responsible for their success. We look forward to continuing with the Model Bank program next year to identify and award the most impressive banking technology initiatives from around the world, and will begin accepting nominations again in September – stay tuned!
“We can all see where the ball in bouncing today, but few of us try to anticipate where tomorrow’s bounce will be, and even fewer will attempt to take advantage of it. “The forward-thinking banks that heed the lesson of Yahoo!’s current troubles will stop worrying about the pressure coming from the current crop of Fintech upstarts and will focus on that second bounce of the ball, the place where the real opportunity lies. There is still plenty of time left in this game.