Paying with Google: An Exciting Prospect, Again

Paying with Google: An Exciting Prospect, Again

Last week in the Google I/O developer conference, Google made a number of interesting payments-related announcements. I would encourage anyone interested in this to look at the full video online, but here are some highlights and my takeaways. Google has discussed:

  • Google Payment API, which enables merchants to let their customers check out via any cards stored with Google. When the customer is ready to check out, they hit a "Pay with Google" button and are presented with the available payment options – any cards they have in their Google account they may have registered to pay for apps and services in Google Play or YouTube. Importantly, it also includes cards registered via Android Pay. Google is piloting this API over the the next few months and is partnering with the leading payment service providers, such as Braintree, Stripe, Vantiv, ACI, Adyen, First Data and Worldpay, to take it to market. This will work in-apps, via the browser, and via Google Assistant.
  • Google Shopping API to integrate into Google Home, and ability to build Purchase Actions with Google Assistant. In the example shared by the executives on stage, customers can talk via the Assistant to Panera, request an item, and pay for it via a card stored on the Google account while authenticating with their fingerprint. They also showed how the Gmail Send Money function can now be triggered via a voice command, bringing P2P payments capability to the Assistant. In the future, there are plans to onboard other P2P providers.
  • Loyalty enrollment, engagement and redemption support for in-store merchants. Participating merchants will allow customers to save their loyalty programs directly to Android Pay, get notifications of available offers via Android Pay, and redeem via Smart Tap, a service for which Google partnered with First Data and its Clover platform.

At the foundational level, Android Pay continues to make international inroads. It is already available in 10 markets, and is launching soon in Brazil, Canada, Russia, Spain, and Taiwan. Also, one of the most important features (in my view) is something that is already available today, yet perhaps didn't get enough acknowledgement in the market when launched – the push provisioning API. Issuers that integrate push provisioning API allow their cardholders to add cards into Android Pay directly from their mobile banking apps. More importantly, the user can get all the benefits of Android Pay without having to download and set up the Android Pay app itself. Certainly, that's one adoption barrier less to worry about. Bank of America, bnz, Discover, mBank, USAA, and Westpac are among the first banks that have integrated push provisioning API.

This is not the first time that Google made interesting announcements around payments – back in 2011, Google Wallet generated a lot of excitment among all of us following mobile payments. It appears that the latest API-driven approach with Android Pay as the foundation makes 'paying with Google' an exciting prospect again.

Internet of Things: Why Banking and Payments Professionals Should Care

Internet of Things: Why Banking and Payments Professionals Should Care

There is little doubt that Internet of Things (IoT) is transforming many industries, from manufacturing to insurance. Celent's Insurance practice has been at the forefront of IoT research since 2014 and has published many insightful reports. At first glance, IoT’s impact on banking is less obvious. And yet, in a new research report published this week, Payments and the Internet of Things: Opportunities and Challengeswe assert our belief that IoT also matters for banking, and especially for the payments industry.

At Celent, we have been writing about “contextual commerce” — taking shopping to customers wherever they are (e.g., ordering something directly from a social media platform rather than a merchant’s site). IoT takes contextual commerce to an entirely new level.

We believe it is helpful to think about the IoT evolution in terms of three large stages of development – see the figure below. Each of these stages represents a qualitative step up in the complexity of how transactions are conducted and what is required of payments.

Wearables and objects with user interface (e.g. a fridge with a screen or an Amazon Dash button) allow customers to place orders and pay in ways other than a plastic card or a computer screen. But the customers are still in control – they decide what they want to buy, find the goods and services that are right for them, and initiate a purchase transaction. Going forward, we expect connected devices to play an active role in orchestrating a commerce transaction — realising that the user needs something, suggesting where and how those needs can be fulfilled, preparing a transaction, and potentially executing it. Think of a car keeping a parking meter topped up until you finish your meeting. Ultimately, we will see the emergence of semi-autonomous economic agents capable of acting independently, including making and accepting payments, to optimise their own, their owners’, and their clients’ objectives. Think of a self driving car paying other cars to get out of the way if it's passenger is in a hurry.

For the payments industry, IOT poses a number of challenges, but also represents a big opportunity. For Banking more broadly, IOT can also help achieve better customer engagement and improve cross-selling as well risk and collateral management. That is, of course, unless we have a major consumer backlash against technology’s intrusion into their privacy. As always, creating genuine value for customers, rather than doing something just because technology is available, will be what differentiates successful banking IoT propositions from expensive failures.

Celent Banking research clients can download the report here. If you are not a client, but interested in the report, please drop us a line at info@celent.com.

Reflections of Nacha Payments 2017

Reflections of Nacha Payments 2017

Analysts have definite fixed points in our year. For me, one is the spring conference season, and which nearly always includes Nacha Payments, the big US payments conference. I was unable to attend last year, so I was particularly looking forward to returning this year. Indeed, there are groups of people I often only see at the event.

After being away, the first thing was that struck the exhibition floor was now much, much smaller. Not just that the stands were smaller, but there were fewer of them as well. Indeed, no banks had stands (though several had meeting “pods”). I also noticed that, at some point (or perhaps I had never noticed it), Nacha had snuck onto the Payments logo the word Faster. And the floor and conference sessions were abuzz with talk of real-time payments.

This had some interesting side effects.

First, the belle of the ball was The Clearing House, with virtually every conversation I had referencing their real-time solution directly or indirectly. Same Day ACH, by comparison, didn’t come up in a single conversation at all. Even in the few sessions I managed to attend, it was only briefly mentioned.

Second, the number of attendees (by our estimates) was up, though still down on a few years ago (my trip report blog for 2012 reported 2,500 vs. the 1800 this year). The result was a definite buzz, particularly on the exhibition floor, where most vendors reported good activity and good levels of conversation.

Third, the topic of conversation was real-time. If name checks in discussions are a valid, albeit unscientific, measure of which real-time solution will succeed, then The Clearing House is significantly ahead of Zelle, but with no other real-time solution even mentioned. Indeed, there seemed to be surprise that so many solutions were going through the Fed process. Whilst the Fed obviously is respecting confidentiality of those going through the process, the vendors themselves need to be very vocal and visible, or they could find themselves being seen as late to the party. I’m party to a number of the names, but I’ve not seen anything from those organisations at all.

Finally, and most interesting, was the sudden appearance of APIs. In Europe, because of PSD2, for the last couple of years, APIs have been something that banks have to discuss because they will become mandated. Their appearance in the US has quite probably been triggered by some of the international banks, but the types of banks discussing them was much broader. In Europe, APIs and real-time will most likely go hand-in-hand – it’ll be interesting whether that will be the case in the US too.

Next year Nacha Payments is back in San Diego. Given where the real-time adoption will be, it’s likely to be a pivotal moment in the industry. I think that sets up the event to be a must attend event. See you in San Diego!

Going to Germany? Don’t Forget Your Cash!

Going to Germany? Don’t Forget Your Cash!

We analysts travel quite a bit to different places around the world. As someone who is always interested in what's going on in the payments world, I have a keener eye on my payments experiences than probably most people. I shared some of my observations about those experience on these pages in the past.

Most of the time these days I don't have to think too much about money – my trusted Visa, MasterCard and American Express cards have been serving me well, to the point that I don't even bother exchanging currency before I get on the plane to many countries in Europe, especially Scandinavia, and increasingly, the US as well. During my last trip to Boston, I left London with just over $30 in my pocket and came back with more of less the same. Cards for meals and coffees, and Uber for taxi rides covered the basics, so the only cash I spent was on a few tips in the hotel.

I just came back from a weekend in Germany, in Wuerzburg, a lovely little town in Bavaria, about half-way between Frankfurt and Nuremberg. And I am very glad I had plenty of cash with me!

Some of it was predictable – the main purpose of my trip was a small music festival, and I expected that once inside, I would need cash for most things, including merchandise (vinyl, cds, t-shirts), snacks, and drinks. Incidentally, buying a drink there was an interesting experience in itself, as each drink included a deposit. So, for example, you would pay EUR 3.30 (in cash) and would get a bottle of beer or a glass of wine and a red plastic token. If you take your empty glassware and the token back to the bar, you get 1 Euro back! I know that in some European countries, you can take your empty bottles and cans back to the store and get some money back, so perhaps that was the reason for the somewhat complicated procedure here. Or perhaps it was a creative way to keep the venue tidy? And, by the way, these prices are not illustrative – a large glass of excellent local white wine was indeed less than 3 EUR once you got back your deposit!

What did surprise me was when I tried to buy something in a proper store in town. I asked if they took cards, and the shopkeeper assured me that yes, they took cards, "as long as they were EC." At first, I thought that perhaps he meant EMV, as in "EC = electronic chip", so I tried first my credit, then my debit cards. Only when both were rejected, I realised that he meant they only accepted "EC = electronic cash or EuroCheque", a German payment instrument that is similar to a debit card, but only works locally. This was a relatively small, "mom-and-pop" store, but I also remember having exactly the same experience on another trip to Germany in a much larger department store. That time I didn't have cash, so had to leave the store empty-handed…

I must also say, before I create any false impressions, that my international cards worked just fine in many places, including the hotel and the restaurants. However, that's a typical T&E sector, which is always the first one to accept international payment cards. I do understand the prevalence of local payment methods and the merchants' preference for those, but by limiting choice, these places do run a risk of losing customers or at least individual transactions.

So, what's my travel advice? Do you homework and understand local payment preferences, but if in doubt, take cash! By the way, that process (getting cash) itself is getting a make-over – there have been quite a few announcements recently from banks enabling customers to withdraw cash from ATMs without a card. However, these announcements also highlight the diversity of approaches being deployed. I am in the midst of writing a report on different ways to implement cardless cash withdrawals, so if you are a Celent research client, stay tuned!

Congratulations to All Celent Model Bank 2017 Award Winners!

Congratulations to All Celent Model Bank 2017 Award Winners!

Many of us at Celent just came back from a busy and exciting week in Boston. Undoubtedly, the highlight was attending Celent's Innovation and Insight Day on April 4th, where we celebrated achievements of the Model Bank and Model Insurer award winners.

The rain and clouds couldn't obscure spectacular views from the State Room overlooking the Boston harbour. And they certainly didn't dampen the mood of nearly 300 attendees representing banks, insurers and technology vendors from at least 15 countries around the world.

Craig Weber, Celent CEO, opened the day by presenting compelling evidence that financial services are more important than many celebrities. He was followed by an insightful presentation from Andy Rear, chief executive of Munich Re Digital Partners. The programme then split into parallel Banking, Insurance and Wealth and Asset Management tracks before reconvening again to close with a series of debates between Celent analysts on three topics: Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and blockchain.

During the Banking track we presented Model Bank awards, and discussed the winning initiatives and why they stood out from all others. As regular readers of this blog know, this year we introduced specific named awards with only a single winner for each award. I would like to offer my personal congratulations to all of our Model Bank 2017 winners:

Winner

Award

Alior Bank S.A., Poland

Emerging Technology for Consumers

Banco Original, Brazil

Consumer Digital Platform

Bank of America, USA

Risk Management

BMO Bank of Montreal, Canada

Process Automation

Capital One, USA

Emerging Technology for Businesses

CBW Bank, USA

Banking as a Platform

Citi, USA

Open Banking

Credit Suisse AG, Switzerland

Payments Replatforming

DenizBank, Turkey

Lending Product

Emirates NBD and ICICI Bank, India and UAE

Most Promising Proof-of-Concept

FGB, UAE

Corporate Banking Digital Platform

Idea Bank S.A., Poland

Small Business Digital Platform

India Post, India

Financial Inclusion

IndusInd Bank, India

Fraud Management and Cybersecurity

Millennium BCP, Portugal

Branch Transformation

Mizuho Financial Group, Japan

Consumer Banking Channel Innovation

National Australia Bank, Australia

Core Banking Transformation

OakNorth Bank, UK

Banking in the Cloud

Radius Bank, USA

Product Innovation

The Royal Bank of Scotland, UK

Employee Productivity

YES BANK, India

Payments Product

And of course, congratulations to Caixa Bank, our Model Bank of the Year 2017! The keynote presentation by Àngels Valls on how Caixa Bank has embraced digital was the highlight of the I&I Day for many of us in Banking – thank you! Finally, congratulations to Celent Model Insurer award recipients.

Each of the award winning initiatives is published as a case study and available to Celent research clients by following the links above. In addition, we also published an overall Model Bank 2017 report, which discusses how the Model Bank programme has changed over 10 years and reviews the content themes across all nominations in 2017.

We intend to run the Model Bank programme again later this year, so keep an eye on the announcements when the new submissions window opens. We have no doubt that you are all working on exciting things and hope that you will consider submitting your initiatives for 2018 awards. In the meantime, enjoy the case studies and let's celebrate the Model Bank winners of 2017!

Celent Model Bank 2017 Awards: The Payments Preview

Celent Model Bank 2017 Awards: The Payments Preview

This is the next instalment of our Model Banking preview blogs, and it’ll come as no surprise that I will focus on Payments.

Reading and evaluating the Model Bank entries is always fascinating. It’s also somewhat frustrating too at times – payments, covering so much territory, often ends up with the tricky task of comparing two very different projects, and trying to decide which is best. This year was no different, with the quality of entries high.

Until we announce all winners publicly on April 4 at our 2017 Innovation & Insight Day in Boston, we’re unable to say too much more – very frustrating! In addition to presenting the award to the winners, we will be discussing broader trends we’ve seen across all nominations and will share our perspectives why we chose those particular initiatives as winners. Unfortunately though, if you’ve not already registered, it’s too late. As with every year, it’s not only sold out, there is a growing wait list too!

So until April 4th, what can we take away from the Payment entries as a whole this year?

First, the entries this year reinforce how hard it is for any single bank to come up with a cutting edge product innovation in payments. As a result, we had a number of entries submitted jointly by multiple FIs describing their initiatives on blockchain, P2P infrastructures, and other collaborative efforts.

We also saw, particularly in the retail space, the adoption of innovations in one market, transposed from another. There were a number of these, particularly in wallets and P2P. Not bad, just not new and often with a very specific market context. For example, one technology had been in place in a different country for at least 5 years, yet the impact will be huge for the bank who submitted it, and is leading edge for their market.

This perhaps serves as a timely reminder that innovation isn’t always about cutting edge technology, but doing something different. Scanning other markets for what they do, and why, is a great source of new ideas, Given that these innovations are, by definition, tried, tested and live, it also has the benefit of being easier to adopt, from the likely business benefits to the actual technology used and lessons learnt.

The second theme is the continued payments back-office renovation story, particularly around the adoption of payment services hubs, which continue apace. Whilst we have defined what is or isn’t a hub, we have always been clear that no two hub projects are exactly the same, and the entries this year reinforce that.

A few things really stood out in particular about the entries. First, some clients still consider hubs to be mainly European, yet we had entries from right around the globe. Second, whilst the details may differ, common to all was the belief that the bank had to re-engineer payments, not just for the future, but to better respond to changes that were imminent. Given the change in the last 10 years, and the likely change in the next 10, perhaps the question for many banks is more about when than if they also undergo their own transformation.

Look out for the case studies being published on April 4th for more detail!

European Payments: Breathing a Sigh of Relief (For Now)

European Payments: Breathing a Sigh of Relief (For Now)

In our recently published report on Top Trends in Retail Payments we quoted a European payments professional:

“If the publication of PSD2 gave the industry a headache, then the publication of draft RTS gave it a heart attack.”

Of course, he was talking about the draft regulatory technical standards (RTS) that the European Banking Authority (EBA) has been tasked to develop for how the industry should implement Payment Serivces Directive's (PSD2) requirements for strong customer authentication and secure communicationThe draft RTS published in a consultation paper last August was indeed rather draconian. One of the key proposals was "not to propose exemptions based on a transaction risk analysis performed by the PSP” and to keep “the authentication procedure […] fully in the sphere of competence of the ASPSP [Account Servicing Payment Service Providers, i.e. banks].” The draft RTS has united the industry to an extent rarely seen before – representatives from payments, cards, e-commerce, small merchants, digital technology, telecoms, travel and industries have expressed concerns that the EBA’s standards implemented in their current form would “make online shopping much more onerous than it is today and have a wider and chilling effect on the Digital Single Market.”

Thankfully, it appears that the EBA has been listening. The final standards have not yet been published, but yesterday, Andrea Enria, Chairperson of the EBA gave a speech at the Westminster Forum, and has given the clearest indication yet that the EBA is open to changing the RTS. Specifically, according to the speech, the RTS when published will:

  • Introduce two new exemptions, one based on "transaction risk analysis" and the other for payments at so-called "unattended terminals" for transport or parking fares. Transaction risk analysis exemption will be linked to maintaining predefined fraud levels and will be reviewed after 18 months.
  • Contain some changes to the existing exemptions, such as increasing from EUR 10 to EUR 30 the threshold for remote payment transactions. However, there will be no further exemptions for e.g. corporate payments.
  • Outlaw the current practice of third party access without identification (e.g. ‘screen scraping’) once the transition period under the PSD2 has elapsed and the RTS applies.
  • Maintain the obligation for the ASPSPs to offer at least one interface for AISPs and PISPs to access payment account information. A requirement has been added requiring banks to provide the same level of availability and performance as the interface offered to, and used by, their own customers, as well as to provide the same level of contingency measures in case of unplanned unavailability.
  • Remove references to ISO 27001 and other specific, technological characteristics, to ensure technology-neutrality and allow for future innovations.

It will be important to review the details when the final RTS is published, and of course, much work will still have to be done by the industry to ensure compliance. Yet, it seems that the payments professionals in Europe may breathe a sign of relief – the heart attack may have just been averted, at least for now.

The Mobile Banking and Payments Summit – Impressions from Day 2

The Mobile Banking and Payments Summit – Impressions from Day 2

A couple weeks ago I attended the Mobile Banking and Payments Summit in NYC for the first time.  There was an impressive list of experts from institutions such as JPMC, Barclays, Citibank, BNP Paribas, the Federal Reserve, USAA, Capital One, BBVA, and Moven, among others. I was only able to attend the final day, but it didn’t disappoint.  The day focused mostly on mobile wallets, with a few main points shared below:

  • Mobile wallets have been challenged by industry barriers:  The old rule of thumb with a payments scheme is that it needs to please three parties: the merchant, the bank, and the consumer.  These products and solutions have traditionally fallen short of one or more of these objectives, essentially stalling a lot of the progress.
    • There’s still plenty of fragmentation in the market:  Android is an open system utilizing Host Card Emulation (HCE), while Apple is a closed system using a secure element.  There are others beyond that, but it’s largely contributed to a lack of standardization and unimpressive overall adoption.  We know this is largely understood by banks and merchants, and many are willing to play along for the time being.
    • Consumers can misunderstand mobile wallets: Many users of Apple Pay, for example, have a poor understanding of how the system actually works, with many assuming Apple is in control of their card details.  While the system is safer than traditional cards, the perception that it’s less safe is keeping many users from adopting it.
    • Getting the marketing right is tough: Often, the mobile wallet really isn’t about the payment so much as the experience around the payment.  It might be easier or there might be a whole host of incentives like rewards wrapped around it.  The potential is there, but until recently the market hasn’t been.
  • But many barriers are beginning to fall away, and there’s hope for adoption: For years, the industry has been declaring that FINALLY this year will be the year mobile wallets take off.  The industry has been crying wolf for a long time, but there are some promising developments that hope to make mobile wallets a larger share of the payments universe.  Currently in the US, 55% of merchants have updated their payment terminals, and 70% of consumers have chip cards.  The chip card does a lot for security, but the argument is that it adds friction to the checkout experience.  With the card dip taking away from the user experience, the expectation is that mobile wallets will finally offer enough UX improvement over traditional cards that consumers might opt for them during payment.  It’s also reported that more than 50% of millennials have already used a mobile wallet at least once.  This includes Apple Pay, Android Pay, or Samsung Pay.  The growth in adoption with younger consumers is a good sign that broader adoption might not be too far behind.

My colleague Zil Bareisis has written about this quite a bit, and agrees that adoption could be driven by the emergence of EMV as well as an increase in handsets that support wallet payments.Wallets are also striking partnerships to add value, including introducing merchant loyalty, coupons, etc.The launch of Walmart Pay is a great example of a retailer applying these concepts internally, facilitating even greater adoption. For more information see any of the number of reports Zil has written on the topic.

  • Midsize institutions have a few paths to follow implementing a mobile wallet: Banks want to be a part of the adoption, but have so far taken a wait and see approach, unsure about the potential of existing wallets, and still trying to figure out what it means for them as the issuing bank. There are three primary ways a midsize or smaller bank can try to launch a wallet:
    • Building an internal wallet: This provides the most control, customization, flexibility of functionality, and control over the release schedule.  The drawbacks are that it can be a complicated task, a large investment is required, the institution needs sufficient subject matter expertise in-house, and there would be no Apple NFC support.
    • Buying a turnkey white label wallet: A turnkey solution would have the benefit of being plug-and-play, there would be some customization options, functionality would be built in, fewer resources would be involved, and the vendor would provide some subject matter expertise.  There would, however, be less control over the product, the wallet could be processor dependant, and the roadmap wouldn’t be controlled by the institution.
    • Participating in an existing wallet: For many this is the road that will result in the largest adoption.  The options are fairly universal, with Samsung, Apple, and Android offering networks here.  Its plug and play, easy to get traction, includes a lot of choice, and frictionless.  The drawbacks are mainly the lack of customization options or control over the direction of the wallet.

We often say that we go to these conferences so that our subscribers don’t have to.  This is just a short summary of the day, and obviously there was much more detail shared. We encourage all of our readers to attend these events, but will be there in case they can’t make it.

Where Will We See You Again?

Where Will We See You Again?

When the leaves start falling, it usually means one thing for Celent analysts – the conference season is getting into full swing and it’s time for us to hit the road big time.

The team is already busy at SIBOS this week, with BAI and AFP coming in a few weeks. Personally, I am looking forward to speaking on customer authentication at Mobey Day in Barcelona on October 5-6, as well as attending Money20/20 in Las Vegas on October 23-27.

Such high profile events are always great places for catching up with our clients and other industry experts. They are also perfect for getting up to speed with the latest developments in the industry, or, as my colleague Dan Latimore says, “soaking up the zeitgeist”. Dan will also be joining me at Money 20/20.

This year, we will be keeping an eye on (amongst many other things):

  • Which of the latest initiatives look most promising to (re-)invigorate mobile payments? Will it be Apple Pay and Android Pay on a browser, the networks’ partnerships with PayPal, 'Merchant' Pay, or something new that will get announced at the events?
  • Adoption of and developments in payments security technologies, from EMV to biometrics, and from 3DS to tokenization.
  • Innovations that drive commerce and help merchants, from bots to APIs that enable deep integration of payments into the merchant’s proposition. Also, creative application of analytics, whether to help merchants increase conversation rates, extend a loan, or deliver the most relevant and timely offer to the customer.
  • Where will blockchain fit into payments world? Ripple continues to gather momentum with cross-border payments, the UK is exploring the use of distributed ledger technologies as backbone for a domestic payments system, while IBM is partnering with China's Union Pay around loyalty. What other payments-related innovations can we expect from the blockchain community?

What will you be looking for? If you’ll be in Barcelona, Orlando, Chicago or Vegas, we look forward to seeing you. If you haven't registered, now's the time. And because of your relationship with Celent, you are entitled to an additional $250 discount off the Money20/20 registration fee. Combined with the Fall Final special you save a total of $725. Simply enter promocode Celen250 when you register here.

The Evolving ACH Landscape

The Evolving ACH Landscape

We’ve been tracking blockchain, distributed ledgers, etc for a number of years, and we’ve always been enthusiastic with the promise…but pointed out that it isn’t quite there yet, at least for payments. An announcement today caught our eyes:

"The Innovation Engineering team at Royal Bank of Scotland has built a Clearing and Settlement Mechanism (CSM) based on the Ethereum distributed ledger and smart contract platform."

In the Finextra article announcing it it says:

"The test results evidenced a throughput of 100 payments per second, with 6 simulated banks, and a single trip mean time of 3 seconds and maximum time of 8 seconds," states the bank. "This is the level appropriate for a national level domestic payments system."

So first the positives. That’s significantly higher throughput than any other test we’ve seen so far, by a fair margin. It’s also faster than many other systems.

But…

We’d perhaps take issue with “appropriate level” though. Not a criticism of the test or the technology, but more a reflection of the task.

100 payments per second sounds an awful lot to those not in payments. With 86,400 seconds in a day, that’s 8.4m transactions a day. UK Faster Payments in August was running at around 3.2m transactions a day. Yet of course payments don’t flow uniformly through out the day or even day by day. Anecdotally, we’ve been told that c.70% of Faster Payment transactions are sent between the last settlement of the day and the first one the next day, a window of c. 16 hours. But realistically few of those will be made at, say, 3am. The actual window is therefore closer to 8 hours or less for those 70%. That means, even if they are running evenly, it's approximately 110 transactions per second.

The system will be scalable, so it would seem feasible for Faster Payments to be replaced by what was tested. However, in fact it perhaps highlights the real issue. On an average day, it would cope. It’s planning for the unaverage day that’s the issue. The UK ACH system, BACS, highlights this well.

BACS processes on an average day roughly 15m transactions. Given the operating window for the actual processing (10pm to 4am), that’s actually c. 700 transactions a second, significantly higher that the test through-put. But systems have to be designed to cope with worst case scenarios, referred to as peak days. These occur when month ends meet quarter ends meet various other things such as Public Holidays. The BACS record peak day to date is 103.7m. That’s a staggering 4,800 transactions a second.

What do we learn from this?

The technology being tested has evolved rapidly, and is continuing to do so. The volumes now being processed are rising rapidly. Yet today the technology probably isn’t ready for a national payment system quite yet, with the exception of some smaller countries or for specific lower volume systems such as high value. Furthermore, it's important that the systems are tested from a peak day plus a comfortable amount of head room on top (nobody wants to operate at 99.99% capacity!)

But compared to as little as 18 months ago it, the conversation has shifted noticeably from could it replace to should it replace, signifying the very real possibility that it will happen in the near future. Coupled with APIs and PSD2, the payments industry could look radically different in less than a decade.